A working paper published in October by the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) warns that the economy is exposed to a drop in the money Haitians abroad send home, a risk heightened by the end of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in the United States, Juno7 reported on October 30.

The study, by Kensley Blaise, Jean Marie Cayemitte and Jean Gardy Victor of the central bank's economics and finance research department, notes that remittances were worth about 17% of Haiti's GDP in 2024. An IMF estimate cited in the paper says about 79% of them come from the diaspora in the United States.

Using 252 monthly observations from October 2004 to September 2025, the authors simulated falls in remittances of 10%, 20% and 30%. Over 24 months, a 30% drop would weaken the gourde by an average of 2.66%, cut net international reserves by about 6% and worsen the budget balance by about 124.9 million gourdes. The clearest effect is pressure on the gourde; the effect on consumer prices was not statistically significant.

The authors call these vulnerability exercises, not forecasts, and say the study does not directly measure the effect of TPS. Savings, new jobs or changes in how migrants send money could soften a shock. They recommend keeping the foreign-exchange market liquid, managing reserves prudently, keeping the budget credible and lining up outside financing, with special attention to the first three months after a sharp drop. The views are the authors' own, not necessarily those of the BRH board.